Ballon d’Or betting investigation opened over exact top-five prediction
The Ballon d’Or betting investigation has been opened after suspicious wagers correctly predicted the exact top-five finishing order of this year’s award. France Football, the event’s organiser, is investigating the bets and has contacted the police after winnings reached almost $200,000 (£149,000).
Harry Kane was crowned the winner at Monday’s ceremony at the London Palladium, finishing ahead of Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi. That was the same order identified by a group of accounts in an investigation by French media outlet Upside.
France Football contacts police over suspicious Ballon d’Or bets
France Football is examining a series of bets that matched the final top-five ranking with unusual precision. The concern is not simply that the winner was predicted, but that the full order of the first five finishers was reportedly called correctly before the ceremony took place.
The accuracy of the wagers has raised serious questions about whether confidential Ballon d’Or results may have leaked before the public announcement. A leak has not been proven, and the matter is being treated as a question under investigation rather than an established fact.
The organiser has contacted the police as part of its response to the case. No further confirmed action has been detailed.
How the exact top five finished
The Ballon d’Or ceremony took place at the London Palladium, where Kane was announced as this year’s winner. The final top five was:
- 1. Harry Kane
- 2. Kylian Mbappé
- 3. Lamine Yamal
- 4. Rodri
- 5. Lionel Messi
That finishing order is central to the investigation because it was reportedly predicted exactly by the accounts identified in Upside’s investigation. Correctly naming the winner of a major award can happen in betting markets, but matching the precise order of the top five has prompted heightened scrutiny.
Polymarket accounts and the scale of the wagers
It has been alleged that 12 Polymarket accounts placed the bets. Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market where users can wager on outcomes.
More than $264,000 was wagered on the Ballon d’Or outcome before Monday’s ceremony. The suspicious bets generated almost $200,000 in winnings, equivalent to £149,000.
The accounts in question were linked by their shared success in predicting Kane, Mbappé, Yamal, Rodri and Messi in the exact final order. The allegation that 12 accounts were involved remains unconfirmed, and the investigation is focused on how that prediction was made with such accuracy.
Questions over confidential results
The Ballon d’Or is football’s most prestigious individual award, and the confidentiality of its results before the ceremony is central to the event’s integrity. The bets’ success has therefore placed attention on whether any private information could have been accessed before the London Palladium announcement.
At this stage, the central issue is whether the betting pattern points to a leak or another explanation. France Football’s police contact marks the clearest confirmed step so far, while the reported Polymarket activity remains under scrutiny.
The next stage is the investigation into the suspicious accounts, the wagers placed before the ceremony and whether confidential Ballon d’Or results were compromised.